The 2022 final, Argentina 3 France 3 in Doha after extra time, Argentina winning the shootout, is the highest-rated football match of the 21st century. Both teams enter 2026 as title contenders. Argentina top Group J easily; France top a difficult Group I. Bracket math points to a final rematch as a 9 to 12 percent probability.
Probability split based on team strength, recent form, and tactical fit.
How will this match end?
In 2022, Mbappe scored a hat-trick against Argentina, including two in the final 100 seconds of regulation. Argentina has rotated Otamendi and Cristian Romero against high-pace forwards since. Romero is the more physical, Otamendi the better positioner. Whoever Scaloni picks for this matchup defines Argentina defensive shape.
Messi at age 39 will play closer to the No. 10 role he had in 2022, dropping to find space rather than running at defenders. Tchouameni is the central midfielder built specifically to disrupt that movement. The single tactical battle that decides the match.
Argentina scored both 2022 final goals from set-piece situations (one penalty, one extra-time corner sequence). France defended set pieces poorly under Deschamps. Whether they have improved under whoever coaches France in 2026 is the unanswered question.
This matchup is hypothetical until the bracket plays out. Predict the tournament and see which path makes it possible.
They have not met at a World Cup since 1990. The bracket math says 2026 might finally deliver the South American superclásico the world has been waiting for.
Mbappé as captain. Tchouaméni and Camavinga in midfield. Saliba and Konaté at center-back. The predicted 26-man squad for France's title bid.
Spain lead the betting, but Argentina and France are not far behind. A guided tour of the seven sides who can realistically lift the trophy in New Jersey.